It is not our job in the economic commentary to predict the future of the economy. On the other hand, we make a point of outlining the factors that may influence the future of the economy. At this point in the year, we have added a very important new factor. We are heading into a Presidential campaign. At this point, though the nominations are not official, we pretty much know the candidates. And that means...

Every month we wait for the jobs numbers. And every month the markets react to the numbers, but not always as you would expect. For example, this month we had a string of less than stellar economic releases, including the employment report for March. Especially concerning was the fact that first time claims for unemployment were trending upwards after hitting a four year low this winter. These weaker economic reports...

It is obvious based upon the numbers we have seen in the past month that the economic recovery is not getting stronger. This does not mean that the economy will not heat up later this year, but at this time the recovery is remaining tepid. While many would love to see the economy get stronger more quickly, there are certain advantages to a steady and unspectacular pace of recovery. What are these advantages? For one, we will be...

No, this will not be a pause for a commercial. But it is a pause nevertheless. It seems every time the economy gets rolling, the recovery pauses. This week the preliminary GDP numbers for the first quarter will be released and these numbers are likely to tell us how significant the pause is. However, we do know that preliminary numbers are prone to revisions and thus they are not the final word. Last year we had a pretty severe pause and this year the extent of the pause is still...

All along the Federal Reserve Board has maintained their line of keeping rates low for a few more years. They recognize that the economy is looking brighter, but there are still many headwinds. For example, as we have seen in the last two weeks, the bad news from Europe may have died down but the endemic European debt problems are not behind us. When the stock markets pulled back a few weeks ago...

The first quarter of the year is over, and it feels as if we have actually completed an entire year. If you look at the numbers, the stock market has already produced gains that were on the upper end of predictions by analysts for the year. Oil prices have also hit the price which was on the upper end of forecasts, though they have eased back a bit as the quarter came to a close. Even interest rates joined the party as we experienced moderate increases for the first time in more than a year. This takes us to a very obvious question. If the markets have performed a year's worth of work...

We don't always make up the questions. This week, the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, Ben Bernanke did it for us. His words as reported by major media outlets were -- Stronger job growth has brought "good news" recently, but overall, it remains "out of sync" with the modest growth of the U.S. economy. What he is saying is...

The Dow Jones Industrial Average crossed over 13,000 in Mid-March while the S&P crossed the 1,400 level. These are more than just psychological barriers -- they represent highs not seen since the start of the fiscal crisis almost five years ago. There are two ways you could look at these numbers. In one respect, we have seen a remarkable 100% increase in the Dow since the low below 6,600 three years ago. That is quite a run. On the other hand...

Right now it looks as though the economy is heating up. The Federal Reserve Board's comments at the conclusion of their meeting contained a more upbeat assessment of the economy. The Dow hit its highest level since 2007 early last week. Car and real estate sales are rising. Oil prices have been climbing all year and interest rates are also starting to climb. As we have said all along, higher gas prices and rates are the price we expect to pay for a stronger economy. The next question is--how high will rates go if the economy keeps improving?

The economy produced 227,000 jobs in February with an upward revision of job growth for December and January and that is good news. The question is--what does that tell us? Does it mean that the economy after all this time is producing job growth at a pace that will finally pull us into a virtuous cycle? Such a cycle would see positive segments of the economy supporting others. For example...